Research2026
Early Signals in Decentralized Prediction Markets
Evidence from Polymarket and Colombia's 2026 presidential election: can decentralized prediction markets anticipate electoral outcomes?
Prediction marketsPolymarketElectionsBlockchain
Working paper studying the informational power of decentralized prediction markets —Polymarket in particular— using Colombia's 2026 presidential election as a case study.
It asks whether these on-chain, intermediary-free market prices incorporate and anticipate signals about the electoral outcome earlier and more accurately than traditional polls, and what that implies for real-time information aggregation and the efficiency of prediction markets as a forecasting tool.
Read the full paper on SSRN.